Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio. Those were the key players in the Cubs and Cardinals 1964 trade. It’s one of the worst trades in baseball history…at least if you’re a Cubs fan. Years later, in 1979, I’m sure Cubs faithful felt bitter-sweet appreciation watching Brock collect his 3,000th hit against them. If you’re a Cardinals fan, it was one of the best trades your club ever made. It’s not every season you trade for a future Hall of Famer before he reaches his prime…and he helps you reach three World Series and capture two championships.
Lou Brock was one of the most exciting players of his generation. In traditional measurements, he was a star and a deserving first ballot Hall of Famer. A six-time All-Star, he collected 3,023 hits over nineteen seasons while hitting .293. When he retired, he was the all-time stolen base leader with 938 thefts, and he held the single-season record for stolen bases when he swiped 118 in 1974. The 1974 set introduced me to APBA and I recall Brock’s 1974 card as a monster.
Modern Sabermetrics can either solidify the greatness of a player, shed light on an under appreciated star, or show the flaws of the “eye test.” In Brock’s case, it’s the latter. Of the 30 players who’ve collected 3,000 hits, Lou Brock ranks last in WAR. During his career, he was only in the top ten in WAR two times and had just three five win seasons. Brock nearly stole 1,000 bases, but his success rate was only 75.3%…and he lead the league in caught stealings seven times. Added to his subpar defense and low walk rate, Lou Brock was far from the ideal lead off man. Though he always passed the eye test, the numbers now tell a different story.
| Split | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1979 Totals | 120 | 405 | 56 | 123 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 21 | 12 | 23 | 43 | .304 | .342 | .398 | .739 |
After a Terrible Card Tuesday 1978 season, Lou Brock produced a great final APBA card. My calculations have this card producing a .294 average. Though lacking power, it should produce 20+ steals, especially if used in the number two spot in the order. In 1979, Brock did hit second in 79 of his 95 starts. Cardinals manager Ken Boyer must have known Brock was going to get two 10s on his APBA card, so he couldn’t bat him lead off if he wanted him to steal some bases. Anyway, hitting .304 in your swan song season is a great way to go out.
Though the numbers show Brock wasn’t as valuable as once thought, he was, without a doubt, one of the most electrifying players in baseball history. Brock’s career can be summed up in the famous play from the 1968 World Series, when he came up just short of scoring a momentum clinching run. 
It was an exciting and exhilarating play, but it subtracted from the 13 hits Brock had in the series. Coupled with his rally-ending pickoff in game seven, Brock was both an MVP and a goat of the ‘68 Series. Lou Brock’s career was like that as well. For all the great things he did, there were always negatives that detracted from his productivity…much more so than many Hall of Fame players.
Nice entry! I was a little taken aback by “most exciting player of his generation” because that sounds so long ago :)
Yep, he retired 39 years ago…crazy.
Finally, a final card Friday befitting the player’s career. Way to go Lou Brock!
Nice article and great analysis . . . Brock produced some interesting numbers . . . hits total, and all the steals, but you are right. Not much defense, and no walks . . . still a solid player. As a Cubs fan, I had really wished he stayed . . .
…especially for 1969.
In my APBA 1964 replay (cards and dice), I am at June 22nd, so The Trade happened very recently for me. In his final Cubs game for me, Brock hit a solo game-tying HR in the bottom of the 9th, and then a two-run lead-changing walk-off HR in the 12th. I can only imagine the reaction of Cubs fans to his having been traded immediately after!
Thanks for pointing out Brock’s deficiencies. After the Cubs let Greg Maddux go via free agency, that was even worse for the organization than trading away Brock.
Nice article, even as a Cubs fan, although I wasn’t born when this deal went down. I came along 11 yrs later. I do remember Maddux leaving and we can lay that at the GMs door step, it was awful! My only complaint is regarding WAR, we have received this as the stat that defines every career. I think it has some value but Baseball Reference and Fangraphs each have a way of figuring and most don’t understand what goes into the configuration of the number, the defensive part is not that accurate. So even with his low WAR on the list of 3,000 hit list, I wouldn’t hold to much stock in that. Just my opinion and great article. Always well done!