The results of the 1st annual APBA Blog Pitching Grade Challenge are now in! Believe it or not, we have one winner! No tie-breaker, no runoffs but one APBA fan stands above the rest.
Congratulations to APBA fan Jesse Elicker! Of the 121 participants, Jesse had the highest number of correct guesses. He correctly predicted the grades of 19 of the 20 MLB pitchers in the Challenge. His only miss? Jon Gray, who eked out a Grade C.
Well done Jesse! For your expertise in APBA card prediction, you will receive one season for APBA GO thanks to the APBA Company and John Herson.
Five other APBA fans pinpointed the right grade on 18 of 20 pitchers and I think they are worth acknowledging. They are:
- Daniel Bunch
- Ted Ball
- Alberto “Tito” Rondon
- Scott Miller
- Nick Tegeler
Nice work, gentleman! Guys, I am truly sorry that I have no second-place prize for you but you can revel in the recognition by your APBA peers.
Let’s look at the numbers of this Challenge. A total of 121 entries were submitted to predict the grades for 20 MLB pitchers for the 2018 season. No pitcher received a vote for all four grades and no pitcher was unanimous for the same grade. Seven pitchers received votes for just two grades and thirteen received votes for three.
How well did we all do as total group? We averaged 13.2 out of 20 or 65.9% correct. Next to Jesse and the five runners-up, there were seven more who correctly predicted 17 out of the 20 and fourteen more who were right on 16. Hopefully, this chart will give you an idea of the bell curve.
Only seven of the 121 entrants predicted less than 50%.
Which pitcher was the easiest to guess?
From the beginning of the survey, Luis Severino (19-8, 3.39 ERA) by far, was the easiest. Looking back it, that was probably a ‘gimme’. Of the 121 ballots, He received 112 ‘B’ votes. Marco Gonzalez (13-9, 4.00) wasn’t far behind with a 108 ‘C’ votes.
| Grade | Gonzales | Severino |
|---|---|---|
| # A votes | 0 | 7 |
| # B votes | 7 | 112 |
| # C votes | 108 | 2 |
| # D votes | 6 | 0 |
Which pitcher was the hardest to predict?
The majority of APBA fans were actually wrong on two different pitchers in the Challenge. Fans predicted that Kyle Gibson (10-13, 3.62) would be a Grade C pitcher and that James Shields (7-16, 4.53 ERA) would be a D.
| Grade | Gibson | Shields |
|---|---|---|
| # A votes | 0 | 0 |
| # B votes | 57 | 0 |
| # C votes | 63 | 46 |
| # D votes | 1 | 75 |
Wrong on both counts says APBA. Gibson received a Grade B and Shields will have a C. The ratio of Shields’ voting is particularly large.
It is also worth noting that Miles Mikolas (18-4, 2.83) finished with a close vote.
| Grade | Mikolas |
|---|---|
| # A votes | 59 |
| # B votes | 61 |
| # C votes | 1 |
| # D votes | 0 |
According to APBA, Mikolas will be a B for the 2018 season.
But Tom, how did you do?
I posted my ballot earlier when I didn’t have access to the new grades. Now that they are out, I see I didn’t embarrass myself.
Thomas Nelshoppen 15 5 75.0%
The pitchers I missed were Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85 ERA) who missed his A, Dallas Keuchel (12-11, 3.74 ERA), Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89 ERA), Mikolas and Vince Velasquez (9-12, 4.85 ERA). I wrote about my deliberations regarding Kluber before. I just chose the wrong side of fence. Freeland’s B hits close to home. He was a draft pick for the Twin City Thunderchickens in last year’s rookie draft.
Once again, I want to congratulate Jesse Elicker on his singular victory in this 1st annual APBA Blog Pitching Grade Challenge. Nice work! Thanks to everyone for participating as well. I also appreciate John Herson of the APBA Games Company in coordinating with me on this so it could work as well as it did. Finally, I would like to thank Kevin Weber for his general support in getting this going.
If all goes as planned, I will do this again next year!
Before I leave, here are the final 2018 grades and vote distribution for the twenty pitchers involved in the 1st annual APBA Blog Pitching Grade Challenge.
| Pitcher | Actual grade | # A votes | # B votes | # C votes | # D votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Anderson | C | 0 | 19 | 101 | 1 |
| Shane Bieber | C | 0 | 4 | 85 | 32 |
| Madison Bumgarner | B | 0 | 85 | 36 | 0 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | B | 16 | 104 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Freeland | B | 55 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Gibson | B | 0 | 57 | 63 | 1 |
| Zack Godley | C | 0 | 5 | 84 | 32 |
| Marco Gonzales | C | 0 | 7 | 108 | 6 |
| Jon Gray | C | 0 | 1 | 44 | 76 |
| Cole Hamels | C | 0 | 26 | 93 | 2 |
| Dallas Keuchel | C | 0 | 52 | 69 | 0 |
| Corey Kluber | A | 76 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Matz | C | 0 | 8 | 94 | 19 |
| Miles Mikolas | B | 59 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | C | 0 | 34 | 87 | 0 |
| Jake Odorizzi | C | 0 | 0 | 60 | 61 |
| Luis Severino | B | 7 | 112 | 2 | 0 |
| James Shields | C | 0 | 0 | 46 | 75 |
| Brent Suter | C | 0 | 1 | 65 | 55 |
| Vince Velasquez | D | 0 | 0 | 22 | 99 |
Was hoping Matz could pull off the B rating, but looks like I have at least two graded starters for next year.
Congratulations, Jesse!
(This was a great idea, Tom.)
thanks, Steve! I should have done it years ago. It was a blast.
Tom
Thanks for running the contest. Brought back a lot of memories of when I would always suck in the AJ grade-guessing contest.
Hi Jesse,
From having been in a league with you I’m not surprised you did so well.
Thanks Mike! I remember the contest well! I never entered myself but a league member finished in the running one year.
Tom
APBA seems to be contradicting itself. Granted that the hitting averages have continually seemed to be going down since steroids were outlawed and drug tests have actually been given, but some of these pitchers definitely do not deserve “C” ratings. Bieber 4.55 ERA with only 115 IP and a war of 2.9; Godley 4.74 ERA with a war of 2.6; Gray 5.12 ERA with war of 2.5; Odorizzi 4.49 ERA with a war of 2.5; Shields 4.53 ERA with a war of 0.9; and Suter 4.44 ERA with only 101 IP and a war of 1.4. APBA should be ashamed of itself for these ratings. I’ve been a fan of APBA since 1960, and have studied every year since 1901.
Well, NL ERA in 2018 was 4.23 and AL ERA was 4.27. Those are then benchmark ERAs for Grade 8 (or “mid” C) pitchers (after equalizing or normalizing for BG/MG control Z, W, and MG HR ltrs).
What indication do you have that APBA has started using WAR stats in calculating pitcher grades? I have not noticed a switch in philosophy.
Thanks Tom for running the contest. I love your blog and especially Kevin’s articles on cards (Final Card, Monster Card, etc.). The magic of APBA lies in the cards – you can pick it up and “read” the player’s season.