If you haven’t heard, the results of the 2021 Pitching Grade Challenge have been announced. Mark Fitzkee, Shawn Robuccio and Nick Tegeler topped all 242 entrants by correctly guessed 19 out of the 20 pitchers in the Challenge. I thought I’d post a few comments about the data I found interesting.
First of all,
242
We had 242 entries!!! That was amazing! Last year was the high at 141. I was overwhelmed at the response. Thanks to everyone who participated!
How did you all do?
| Average score | 11.1 |
| Most frequent score | 14 |
As the ballots were coming in, I first had the feeling I’d made the Challenge too easy. As we can see, it was certainly challenging, no pun intended.
The average score was just over 11, probably the lowest rate in the four years I’ve been doing this. This was definitely a lot harder than previously years. This makes the score of 19 attained by Mark, Shawn and Nick that much more impressive.
Here is a graphical representation of how we all voted:
On the positive side, more people picked 14 pitchers correctly than any other number at 27. Also, 57% of you guessed more than half of the pitchers correctly.
Who was the hardest to predict?
The top three pitchers were Cs which most people thought would be Bs.
| Pitcher | Team | Official Grade | % correctly guessed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson, Ian | ATL | C | 26.0% |
| Kershaw, Clayton | LAD | C | 30.6% |
| Mahle, Tyler | CIN | C | 36.0% |
Ian Anderson was particularly difficult to pick. Even winner Nick Tegeler got him wrong.
Who was easiest to predict?
My experiment of including J.A. Happ in the Challenge was a non-starter. Most didn’t vote C despite his performance with the Cardinals. As a result, 93% voted correctly for him.
| Pitcher | Team | Official Grade | % correctly guessed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Happ, J.A. | 2 Teams | D | 93.0% |
| Flexen, Chris | SEA | B | 80.6% |
| Giolito, Lucas | CHW | B | 78.9% |
Chris Flexen was particularly easy at over 80% for you. Not for me, though. I thought he’d be a C.
How did Tom do?
I posted my unofficial ballot a few weeks ago. This is how I fared:
| Voter | Correct | Incorrect | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Nelshoppen | 13 | 7 | 65% |
As for me, I correctly guessed 13 of the 20. It tied for my lowest score in the four years. In hindsight, I’m happy with it. Like many fans, I over-graded many pitchers. I’ve seen many comments to this effect. Clayton Kershaw’s C comes to mind.
That said, the data doesn’t bear this out necessarily. A quick glance shows six pitchers who voters generally guessed lower than the higher the grade APBA assigned. In particular, most of you predicted a grade D for Logan Gilbert almost as many for Merrill Kelly. Both received a Grade C.
The full list
You can read the individual Grade reveals I did leading up to this but here is a table of all 20 pitchers and their final grades.
| Pitcher | Team | Official Grade | % correctly guessed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson, Ian | ATL | C | 26.0% |
| Anderson, Tyler | 2 Teams | C | 55.8% |
| Bauer, Trevor | LAD | B | 55.8% |
| Cease, Dylan | CHW | C | 58.7% |
| Civale, Aaron | CLE | C | 61.6% |
| Flexen, Chris | SEA | B | 80.6% |
| Gibson, Kyle | 2 Teams | C | 60.7% |
| Gilbert, Logan | SEA | C | 40.1% |
| Giolito, Lucas | CHW | B | 78.9% |
| Happ, J.A. | 2 Teams | D | 93.0% |
| Kelly, Merrill | ARI | C | 51.7% |
| Kershaw, Clayton | LAD | C | 30.6% |
| Lester, Jon | 2 Teams | D | 58.3% |
| Lynn, Lance | CHW | B | 43.4% |
| Mahle, Tyler | CIN | C | 36.0% |
| Matz, Steven | TOR | C | 48.8% |
| Nola, Aaron | PHI | C | 64.9% |
| Peralta, Freddy | MIL | B | 66.1% |
| Ray, Robbie | TOR | B | 50.0% |
| Wood, Alex | SFG | C | 53.3% |
Finally, here’s a bit of trivia: while many voted not knowing Robbie Ray would have won the Cy Young award, he received an equal number of votes for A and B (split 121 and 121). Lance Lynn actually received more A votes than Ray did.
Congratulations to Mark, Shawn and Nick!
