Card Analysis: Quick and dirty way to estimate what a card will hit

One of the great things about APBA in my mind, is the ability to look at an APBA card and know immediately what kind of a hitter he’ll be.  It’s the consistency of APBA’s cards that makes it fun.  The order of good numbers are almost always the same.  But looking at your favorite player’s APBA card, do you know exactly what he’ll hit?  Is there any way to figure that out?

Well no, but you CAN get a good estimate.  Below is a “quick and dirty” way of estimating what that card’s batting average will be under normal conditions.  I’ll admit, most of what you see below is what I remember reading in APBA Journals years ago. 

Keep in mind that this is by no means an accurate “formula” or some such.  Just a fast and easy way to guesstimate the hitting prowess of an APBA card.  Give it a try and see if it works. 

Here goes:

Step 1: Count the 14s and 42s on the card and subtract that number from 36.  Note: some people will subtract one more for the unusual number.  I never did in the past but it seems to make sense and it adds up when I tested it out.

Step 2:  Add up the hit values on the card.  Not every hit number gets full value.  Here is the estimated value for each hit number

Step 3:  Simply divide the total hit value from Step 2 by the number in Step 1.  That should get you a rough estimation of what that APBA card should hit. 

Let’s take 2010 Miguel Cabrera for example:

Step 1:  He has 4 14s.  Also, let’s go ahead and subtract one more for the 37 since that’s a re-roll. 36-4-1=31

Step 2:  He has two 1s, three 0s, one 7, three 8s, and two 9s.  2(1.0)+3(1.0)+1(1.0)+3(.8)+2(.8)= 10

Step 3: Divide the at-bat results by the hit value number. 10/31= .3225= .323

So by my guess, Miggy’s card should hit around .323, not too far off from his real life .328 batting average in 2010.

Some disclaimers: 

I know what you’re thinking… 7s are out sometimes, right?  Quick and dirty, remember?

Also, if Cabrera is in any of most APBA leagues out there, he’s going to be facing stronger pitching than in the MLB.  It’s not realistic for any APBA baseball player to hit their real life average when in a say, 10-team league.  The pitching is too concentrated.  And we’re better drafters than the MLB general managers, too.  Yeah!

Once I hit the post button, I just know there will be others out there with their own formulas on how they parse out APBA cards.  You’re just itchin’ to tell me how off I am, right?  Let me hear it!  Like I say, this is just my own formula I use as I remember it from the old APBA Journals.  If you have a better way, please share!!