Do you really want to roll a 6 in APBA?

If you play dice APBA, you’ve probably had this happen.  After rolling the dice, one die lands squarely on a six and the other one is spinning.  It keeps spinning and you’re encouraging it in your own special way (Mike Bunch, my commissioner in the Illowa APBA League, would shout out, “Git it! Git it!” while his rogue die is spinning).  If you’re lucky, it ends up another six. 

But is rolling a six on one die really a good thing in APBA?  I guess it depends on the situation.  Rolling a 66 is a fantastic thing; we can all agree on that. However, look at the other possible rolls with a white six.

• 16:  automatic groundout
• 26 (and 46): most likely a strikeout or if you’re Albert Pujols, a DP
• 36: if you’re lucky, it could be a 14- walk but probably a pop out
• 56: monster cards may have a 14 but again, either a pop out or a strikeout

The options aren’t much better for a red six:

• 61: could be a DP or if you’re lucky an unusual play
• 62: this is catch-all number but most likely a 13 or unusual play number
• 63:  a fly-out number, a 31 if you’re lucky
• 64:  other than 66, the best of the bunch
• 65: the most automatic of all result numbers… every hitter gets a 35 here

The point of all this is that other than a 66, there is no really fantastic number you can roll with a six showing. 

In short, APBA’s general placement of the numbers on the APBA baseball card are no accident.  Dick Seitz and his card-making successors have deviously placed the intrinsic value of each of 36 possible rolls very strategically. 

In the case of the red die, it is seen just by viewing the APBA card.  In the case of 2013 Chase Utley’s 11-16 numbers, we don’t see any high offense number clustered together too often (it has happened).  Statistically, they are pretty evenly distributed.  Mathematically speaking, each includes one double number plus a slightly less valuable hit number (in this case the 15-10). 

But take a look at the white die situation as well.  APBA follows the same formula.  One could argue the white one is pretty decent with rolls like 11, 31, and 51.  But what’s this?  We have rolls like 41 and 61 which are prone to the double play.  Without doubt, the best white die to roll is the five.  You have nice dice rolls like 15, 25, 35, 45, and 55.  On most average hitting cards, they will be hits or walks.  Of course even here APBA throws in the the one number, 65, which is the same automatic out on every single APBA card that has ever been published. 

Getting back to the six dice roll and my example of 2013 Chase Utley, would I want to roll a six on one die with him?  Well, here are his numbers:

Other than Utley’s 66-1, his only remotely positive roll with a six in it is the 62- 36.  Utley is not typical of every player and your mileage may vary.  I just picked him out of a pile. 

This is truly a trivial exercise and there is nothing to be gained for me by writing this or you by reading this except for understanding and appreciating the beauty of the APBA card.  I will give credit to former IAL manager Dennis Jennings for prompting this article.  A long time ago when we hand wrote our newsletter and sent it out by postal mail, Dennis who was a mathematician, wrote a treatise on this subject for his monthly article.  This was back in 1990s and his point still stands after all these years.