The Disc is Out! The Disc is Out!

(ed note:  Thanks to Rob Moore for submitting this! –tbz)

One of the highlights of the offseason in APBA-land is the release of the disc for the just-finished season. I don’t even use Baseball for Windows anymore, and yet I still buy the disc. This year, for the first time, I pre-ordered it and received it via email. After an hour or two hunting down utilities on the web that would allow me actually make sense of the data contained on said disc, kind of like a kid trying to get the packaging off of a new toy, I was able to finally get at the numerical goodness at the center.

It’s interesting that no one is ever too concerned about the hitting cards; once you’ve been doing this a while you get a pretty good sense of what kind of card a hitter is going to get based on their stats, and while there is some variance in the specifics, they’re never that big of a surprise. The big questions are always “what are the pitching grades” and “what are the fielding numbers.” This is certainly the case for me.

I always look to see what my rotation is going to look like first, and to see if there are any unusual grades in the pitching ranks. Those things get hashed out all over the place, though, so I won’t go over that well-trod ground. Fielding, on the other hand, is always interesting, because our understanding of fielding is so nebulous. APBA also is said to use fielding as a bit of a fudge factor to nudge a team’s overall performance one way or the other – I’m not 100% sure I buy into that, but in theory it would be pretty easy to use small bumps in catcher or first base defense ratings to push a team up or down, as those ratings don’t affect play results in the same way that ratings at the other positions do. The game company also seems to be slow to recognize the advancements in fielding metrics that have started to gain ground in the world of baseball analysis, meaning that often the fielding ratings are hotly contested.

Mike Lowell is a good case in point; he is a 3b-5 again, APBA’s top rating for a third baseman. In the past he has deserved that rating, but this year coming off hip surgery (what is it with 3b’s and their hips this year?) he was considered to be a few steps worse than usual. Going be UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating, available at www.fangraphs.com), he was the second worst in MLB, although his Range Factor and fielding percentages weren’t terrible.

Another oddity; of 76 players with second base listed as their primary position on the disc, 27 (36%) are 2b-8 or 2b-9. Compare that to 3b-5 (10 of 64, or 16%) or SS-9 ( 15/65, or 23%). I wonder if that is consistent over the years…

Another good barometer is the Gold Glove winners. I’ve known lots of APBA players who have felt that if their guy got a Gold Glove, they should get the top rating. I’m not in that camp; firstly, the Gold Glove voting is pretty haphazard in quality; secondly, being the best doesn’t mean you’re actually any good. We’re not grading on a curve here, folks. I think. The gold glove winners are fairly accurately represented, with all of them getting top ratings. Derek Jeter, who gets some flak for his defense, got his SS-9, and while most agree that while he isn’t the best shortstop in the AL, he has improved his defense over the past couple of years. Elvis Andrus, who probably IS the best defensive shortstop in the AL, got a rare rookie SS-9 as well.

And by the way, my team did OK. My infield is Adrian Beltre (3b-5), Miguel Tejada (SS-8), Howie Kendrick (2b-8), Lance Berkman (1b-4) and Miguel Montero (C-7). My outfield will likely be Johnny Damon (OF-2), Justin Upton (OF-2), and Gary Sheffield (OF-1). With a little defensive substitution (Ivan Rodriguez and his C-8, Chris Young and his OF-3) I should be able to swing a Fielding One team.