I’d like some input from APBA Blog readers so I’m going to solicit some feedback. The Boys of Summer APBA Online League is coming up on their All-Star break so we were asked to fill out the BoS All-Star ballot. Coincidentally, the Illowa APBA League is just finishing up their 2014 season so we have been asked to fill out our All-League ballot which also includes the Cy Young, MVP and other yearly awards.
Generally speaking, I would like to know “when you determine an All-Star or an award winner in baseball, what stats or qualities specifically do you look for?. This could be in your particular APBA league, in an APBA replay or tournament. We could even take APBA out of the question and look at MLB. What stats or qualities do you look at in a MLB player when deciding he is the best of the lot?
Let me break it down into a couple of specific questions
1. When voting on position players, what stats do particularly pay attention to? Do you look at average stats (BA, OBP, SLG) or total stats (HR, runs, RBI etc.) more?
2. Do you consider dependent stats like runs and rbis heavily in your decision or do you discount them?
3. Same for pitchers. Which stats do you focus on?
4. How much more credit do you give a player who is a full-timer as opposed to a player who missed a some games?
5. When voting for an APBA player, does the real-life player’s persona come into play when making your decision?
6. Finally, the age old question. What does it mean to be a Most Valuable Player?
I’ll be honest. I put a lot of emphasis on player who have a lot of rbis and runs. I can just see you SABR-types out there cringing. To me, though, it tells me that the player was involved in game changing plays. If I’m having trouble deciding between a slugger and a high average guy, runs produced will tell me how often each really made a difference.
Also, I’m not a big fan of giving an All-Star vote to a player who is hitting .330 but played half the season. To me, it’s not about the averages but the total amount of positive changes to the team’s effort.
My two leagues do All-Star voting a little different by the way. The Illowa League votes on only the starting position players. The All-Star managers (determined by the best winning percentage from the previous year) picks the bench and pitchers. When I was lucky enough to be the manager in the Illowa League (oh so long ago), I was told I had to pick the pitcher currently with the most wins to start the All-Star game for our division because “that’s how it always is”.
The Boys of Summer League votes on ALL players. I was out of my element when voting for the BoS relievers last week. I think the save stat is becoming an outdated stat. Personally, I think MLB should revamp the rules for it. Yet I can’t quite ignore save totals either. There were plenty of relievers with sub-1.00 ERAs that were quite deserving at the same time.
So give me your input. I’m about to fill out my Illowa APBA League All-League ballot but maybe I’ll hold on to it for a day or two before submitting it to my commissioner.
Good questions, thanks for the opportunity. Here’s what I’ve done with my APBA leagues:
1. I primarily use BA and OBP, but will at least select the homerun leader, even if it means bypassing a higher average hitter(s) at that position. I use the other stats more as tie-breakers.
2. I don’t generally use runs or RBIs as criteria unless it’s close between several equally qualified candidates for a position. My reasoning is that I don’t like to penalize a player on a poor hitting club where guys aren’t getting on base for him and/or driving him in when he gets on base.
3. Almost always ERA, followed by innings to hits ratio and then walks. If there are several candidates fairly close in these categories, I then look at other stats like strikeouts, shutouts, low-hit (3 or less) games as tiebreakers.
4. My rule is a player must have played in more than half of their team’s games by the All-Star break in order to qualify. If they barely qualify, I keep that in mind for stats where quantities matter, i.e., homeruns, doubles, etc.
5. None whatsoever. If they’re larger than life in real life and they don’t produce in my leagues, they aren’t considered! Conversely, if an average real life player gets hot in my APBA leagues, they are certainly considered as an All-Star.
6. This one is where I probably differ with MLB and other APBA gamers. I dislike the seemingly best player “for a good club” selection I see all too often. My rule is simple. I go back to my youth when I played sandlot baseball and had a bunch of friends get together to play. We’d select two “captains”. They would toss a bat to determine who received first pick. The guy who won the toss would always pick the best guy in the bunch and we pretty much knew who that was. It’s the same for my leagues. By the end of the season, I pretty much know who I would pick first for my team and that’s my MVP for the season.
Fir Hitters I take (Runs scored plus RBi’s) times Slugging pct. For pitchers I use Wins then ERA. For relivers I use Saves then ERA, but the ERA is looked at more than it is with Starters. I use pretty much the same approach for MLB players.
ERA can be a very misleading stat for relief pitchers. Let’s say I choose a relief pitcher and only bring him into a game when there are already 2 outs in an inning. His chances of allowing an earned run are significantly lower than if he started an inning. In this way, relief pitcher ERA is often artificially lowered.
That hitter formula is interesting.
I agree with your explanation of how an ERA can be misleading. However if you combine it with WHIP and hits or baserunners per 9 innings you can get a pretty good idea of a pitchers worth.
1. I consider a combination of rate states as well as the counting stats.
Pitcher Wins are based on how many runs the offense scored as well as how many runs the pitcher allowed, so even if fielding is worth nothing at all we’ve already determined that the pitcher’s contribution towards a team win is *at best* 50%. (That’s also to assume the pitcher went all 9 innings, because otherwise we also have to factor in how much effect the bullpen had in determining the win.)
Runs are a combination of how often a guy gets on base with how guys do *after* him in the lineup.
RBI are a combination of how often a guy gets a hit (or a walk with the bases loaded) with how guys do *before* him in the lineup.
So there are flaws there. I say I go by a combination because, as you said, it’s one thing to have a 300/400/500 slash line in 300 Plate Appearances and another thing to do it in 700.
2. I don’t *entirely* discount Runs and RBI, but they may be used more as a tie-breaker than anything else. If I’m considering 2 guys who each played 150 games and were almost exactly the same but one of them had 20 more RBI than another, then sure, it factors in.
3. For pitchers I am generally looking at some combination of the “Triple Crown” stats – ERA, Wins and Strikeouts – as well as WHIP. Kind of goes with what I said before about combining rate and counting stats. For starters, I factor ERA. For relievers, I consider WHIP, because ERA is largely meaningless for relievers, especially LOOGYs and guys who are prone to entering games mid-inning. (They get an artificially lowered ERA as a result of entering when there is already 1 or 2 outs in the inning.)
4. Again, this is folded into a combination of rate and counting stats.
5. No! If I personally dislike a player, I don’t think keeping my votes away from them in a fantasy baseball game is really striking a blow.
6. I definitely don’t subscribe to the idea that an MVP needs to have come from a winning team. For me, it’s basically “If I removed this player from a team, how many fewer wins would they get?” If a 70-win team would have only won 60 without some guy, but a 100-win team would have still had 95 without another guy, I’m picking the guy off the 70-win team.
I don’t have all star games in my replays, but for my end of year honors I have evolved over time. I give credence to all categories, with about 20 categories for both pitchers and hitters I give players “points” for their spot in each category. First place 10 points, second 9, and so on.
But if I have a couple of players pretty close I actually email people whose opinion I trust no names, just stats and ask for their opinion.
Some really good comments here.
As far as looking past the stats (Question 5), I will take into consideration their defensive rating since our league doesn’t track defensive stats. Other than that personal stuff doesn’t matter. At least on a conscious level. :)
I’d love to keep it on a strictly logical basis and only look at percentages. Then I’ll run across a player who hit say, .310/.450/.550 but only scored 55 runs and drove in 65. I totally understand the argument about playing on a less offensive team (believe me, my team went 62-100 this year :) ) but I still would have liked to see some more production from that player regardless.
And point well taken about reliever’s ERA, Chris.
…and interestingly enough, the day after I wrote this, the Illowa APBA League is beginning to discuss this year’s HOF ballot.
I look at avg, HR, RBI for hitters… and SB may be an influence also. I don’t look at defensive stats because I wouldn’t know what to make of them anyway… =), but if close I pick the guy who is a better defensively. For pitchers ERA, WHIP, wins and saves.
I do downgrade based on innings too, so if close I will always pick the one who played the most.
Maybe I shouldn’t let real world influence, but if there is a big time star and a war 0 guy both with similar numbers, I’d probably give the nod to the star and justify it as numbers don’t mean everything. ;)
A-ha.
Now I know why you switched divisions in ILLOWA league: Because it will be easier to be the All-Star manager in your new division then it was going to be in your old division.
Cleverly done, sir.
You have a great discussion going. For me the most important thing is the effect the player had on his team. The most obvious example is Steve Carlton 1972. For the life of me I cannot understand voting for anyone else. Beyond that I look to who was in the top 5 in BA, OBS, hits, HR and SB. The latter 3 categories naturally discount for games missed. For pitchers ERA is the most important followed by wins and saves.