Statistically, gearing up for 2013

I did a slight double take the other day when my daily kilg.us email with the stats of my team’s ballplayers came.  All goose eggs for every player.  Then two seconds later, I realized it was the day after the season ended.

I then thought that there was no time like the present to work on next year’s limits.  Currently, the Illowa APBA League works with a 26-player roster and pretty strict usage limits so getting a sense where I’m at will help in trade talk.

The set up I have is pretty basic.  I put together an Excel spreadsheet for each batter with their games played, at-bats, and column which calculates at-bats per game.  A separate column lists secondary positions.  I do the same for the pitchers with games started, games relieved, innings pitched, and IP/G.

A quick look at a few of the players’ entries:

AB/G is useful for indicating how the player should be used.  My outfielder Nick Markakis has 4.04 AB/G which means when he plays, he’ll play the whole game.  Another “outfielder” of mine, Eric Hinske on the other hand, played 91 games but accumulated only 132 at-bats for a 1.45 AB/G mark.  No doubt, I’ll be pinch-hitting with him. 

For the time being, this spreadsheet is a handy guide. When the 2013 season rolls around though, I’ll integrate it into a master spreadsheet so that when I input my team stats, it will automatically deduct from each player’s usage limits stats.  That will give me a ‘games left’, ‘at-bats left’ and so on for each player.

As it turns out, limits-wise, we’re in fair shape.  Troy Tulowitzki’s injury throws a monkey wrench into things as I I’ll have to trade for or draft a shortstop to make sure I have someone to play.  With only a 26-man roster and no reserve system, I only have his 47 games plus 40 from Descalso at the moment.  On the other hand, my 2012 pick of Jason Kipnis looks like a genius move given Orlando Hudson’s slight demise in the MLB.

Getting my stat limits in order got me thinking about my 2013 season and what I needed for a successful season.  An APBA league team’s needs going into trade season and draft can be divided into two categories.

Short Term

There a couple examples that fall into Short Term needs category.  The obvious is when you need a body to fill a position.  As in my case with Tulo’s injury, I need a shortstop to play 80-some games for 2013.  Fortunately, there are some quality shortstops in the rookie draft.

Another example of a short term need is a one-year fix.  The most common one is a good reliever.  At least in the IAL, there are always A* relievers aplenty in the rookie draft who are available to step in and fill in a role.

Of course, there’s always the situation where a B starter comes in handy.  Occasionally, there are times a bum pitcher gets lucky and gets a B.  Those are times when playoff contenders will trade for them or draft them (probably lower than a standard B would go) for that extra boost.

Long Term

I have five outfielders on my team and could probably do with one more.  But that’s not the point.  The point is that my outfield is full of players like Jose Tabata and Eric Hinske.  Tyler Colvin is actually looking pretty good right now and that’s probably not a good sign. I’m looking to upgrade my garden with a future franchise star.  Someone who will be around for a while, play every day, and perhaps even be a star.  Case example:  Jason Kipnis from this year’s draft.  I didn’t need him.  He only played 36 games and I already had Hudson and Descalso.  I picked him in the second round simply because I thought he was the best player in the Majors available.  This coming season, he’ll be my starting secondbaseman, winning the job from Hudson.

I do have the advantage of having the first pick of the 2013 rookie draft.  The exploits of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout have not escaped my attention.

You can see that my two catcher are Soto and Buck who have hit below .230 the past two years.  If I have a spare pick, catcher may be a position where I may want to to upgrade as well.

The point is this:  you don’t really need this player but you really need this player to win.

One last point

As a general rule, pitchers are generally untrustworthy when it comes to depending on them year in and year out.  There is too much risk from injury.  This especially goes for young pitchers and relief pitchers.  And ESPECIALLY young, relief pitchers.  Yes, I know there are exceptions (Andrew Bailey was one until his 2012 season).  However, if I’m looking for prospect to last for more than a couple years, I tend to stay away from hurlers.

Time for some trade talk with my esteemed fellow managers.