The 2022 APBA Blog Pitching Grade Challenge voting booths are now closed. Thanks to you all, we have surpassed last year’s record of participants. This year, 245 submitted ballots, three more than last year. Thanks everyone!
Each year that the APBA Blog has conducted the Pitching Grade Challenge, I submit an unofficial ballot. I of course, don’t know the grades either so I’m in the dark as much as you all.
And each year, I publish my ballot after the balloting is closed but before the grades are released. Let’s just say, it’s my effort to keep me honest as the APBA Blog editor.
So far, I have held my own in the first four years.
2019 was a banner year for me getting 18 out of 20 right. Still, I haven’t gone below 65%.
On to the 2022 ballot
The ballot for 2022 was a tough one. I do put some thought into choosing the pitchers in the ballot but once I had to actually TAKE the Challenge this year, I realize how difficult it was. This was confirmed by many comments left along with the ballots.
The ballot below was taken literally minutes after the Pitching Grade Challenge went live.
I want to emphasize that these are my guesses and not the official APBA grades!
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | ERA | Tom’s Guess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Anderson | ATL | 10 | 6 | 111 2/3 | 5.00 | D |
| Chris Archer | MIN | 2 | 8 | 102 2/3 | 4.56 | C |
| Jose Berrios | TOR | 12 | 7 | 172 | 5.23 | C |
| Alex Cobb | SFG | 7 | 8 | 149 2/3 | 3.73 | C |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 9 | 11 | 174 2/3 | 4.53 | C |
| Kyle Gibson | PHI | 10 | 8 | 167 2/3 | 5.05 | C |
| Lucas Giolito | CHW | 11 | 9 | 161 2/3 | 4.90 | C |
| Zack Greinke | KCR | 4 | 9 | 137 | 3.68 | C |
| Michael Kopech | CHW | 5 | 9 | 119 1/3 | 3.54 | B |
| Pablo Lopez | MIA | 10 | 10 | 180 | 3.75 | B |
| Jordan Lyles | BAL | 12 | 11 | 179 | 4.42 | C |
| Triston McKenzie | CLE | 11 | 11 | 191 1/3 | 2.96 | B |
| Nick Pivetta | BOS | 10 | 12 | 179 2/3 | 4.56 | C |
| Jose Quintana | TOT | 6 | 7 | 165 2/3 | 2.93 | B |
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | 11 | 7 | 146 | 2.84 | B |
| Robbie Ray | SEA | 12 | 12 | 189 | 3.71 | B |
| Carlos Rodon | SFG | 14 | 8 | 178 | 2.88 | B |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | 13 | 8 | 147 | 3.55 | B |
| Patrick Sandoval | LAA | 6 | 9 | 148 2/3 | 2.91 | B |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 11 | 12 | 191 2/3 | 3.71 | C |
My first general rule is to look at the ERA which is then influenced by the number of wins. When I look at ERA, it is compared to the league ERA. In the past, the American League pitchers would get a bit of leeway since they alone had the DH. In 2022 however, the AL had a superior ERA (3.88) to the NL (4.05).
Adjusted ERA also comes into effect when judging grades for extreme overall seasons such as 1968. Are we approaching that territory for 2022? The overall ERA for the whole league dipped below 4.00 for the first time since 2015. Time will tell if APBA will decide to make an adjustment.
Finally, pitchers who play for playoff teams and especially World Series teams may get a bump if they are on the fence.
If I had to re-grade over again, I probably wouldn’t be so generous with as many (Archer, Gibson etc.). It just that I have seen APBA give C grades out to high ERAs in the past.
Make your digs. This may be the first time my percentile takes a dip.
Once I get the official grades from APBA, I will be tabulating the results of the Challenge. Stay tuned!
I gave out 7 Bs, 10 Cs and 3 D grades.