In the time of year between the end of the MLB season and time that the cards come out, it seems all we have to hang on to are our hopes for the next season’s card set. And a big part of that are predictions. No one claims to have APBA’s secret formula for making cards but a few have come close to predicting what they may be.
And in this in-between period, that’s all we have.
Bruce Norlander has traditionally posted his predictions of pitcher’s grades on the APBA Between the Lines Forum for many years and judging by the forum’s comments, many are grateful, it seems, if only for a glimpse of what the upcoming set will look like. Bruce’s tireless work is much appreciated by the APBA community.
You can find Bruce’s predictions on this post on the APBA Between the Lines forum. If you’re not a member (and if you’re an APBA fan you really should be), you’ll need to register first. Don’t worry, it’s free.
Also, Mike Bunch, who is the commissioner of the Illowa APBA League, also puts out his yearly predictions. A couple days after the last day of the season, Mike posts his predictions for hitters’ cards and pitching grades for those players in the IAL. For my money, he’s pretty much on the mark. Maybe next year, I’ll challenge him do the whole league.
You can find Mike’s predictions on the Illowa APBA League web site.
What I thought I’d do was compare the pitching grade comparisons from Mike and Bruce and find out where they differ. The point of this was not to see who is right and wrong (who are we to say?) but more a case of curiosity of which pitchers were borderline.
A couple of points before we get started:
Again, Mike only predicted the pitchers in our 10-team league
Mike used letter grades… Bruce used MG grades
When I compared Mike’s and Bruce’s pitching predictions, I was impressed on how much they actually agreed. Among the pitchers in the iAL at least, they only disagreed three times.
And here they are:
Matt Cain
| GS | IP | W-L | BB | K | ERA |
| 34 | 217 2/3 | 8-14 | 91 | 186 | 3.76 |
Bruce’s Prediction: 8Y
Mike’s Prediction: BX
Zack Duke
| GS | IP | W-L | BB | K | ERA |
| 31 | 185 | 5-14 | 47 | 87 | 4.82 |
Bruce’s Prediction: 4Z
Mike’s Prediction: CZ
Daisuke Matsuzaka
| GS | IP | W-L | BB | K | ERA |
| 29 | 167 2/3 | 18-3 | 94 | 154 | 2.90 |
Bruce’s Prediction: 15XW
Mike’s Prediction: BXW
Even on the cases of Matsuzaka and Duke, the predictions differ by just one Master Game grade so they weren’t off by much.
On Cain however, there’s a bit of a difference.
Anyway, food for thought. Thanks to Mike and Bruce for their hard work all these years making the wait for the cards that much more bearable.
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