What to do with Mike Trout?
My friend Dan Velderrain contacted me and asked a favor regarding his team in the Southern California Baseball League, the Saddleback Sharks:
I was wondering if you could help me…. Even though I am 20-10, I feel like I should be scoring more runs…. I am just curious what your lineup would be with this team….
I need Help Man!!! Thanks!!!
My first thought was, he’s 20-10 and needs help?? But I love looking at teams and putting a lineup together especially when it doesn’t hurt my team ;-)
So let’s look at the players involved and their pertinent numbers. In no particular order they are:
| Jay Bruce | OF-3 | 1-5-5-6-8-8-9-9-10, 3 14s, 0 24s |
| Billy Butler | (S)1B-2 | 1-5-6-7-7-7-8-8-8-9-9, 3 14s, 2 24s |
| Starlin Castro | (F) SS-8 | 3-5-5-7-8-8-8-9-9-10-11, 2 14, 1 24 |
| Curtis Granderson | (F) OF-3 | 1-1-0-0-8-8-9-9, 4 14s, 0 24s, (5 SC 1s) |
| Dustin Pedroia | 2B-9 | 0-0-0-0-8-8-8-9-9-11, 3 14s, 0 24s (7 SC 1s) |
| Mike Trout | (F) OF-3 | 0-0-0-0-8-8-9-9-10-11-11, 4 14s, 0 24s (7 SC 1s) |
| Mark Trumbo | (S) OF-1 | 1-5-5-7-8-8-8-9-9-10, 2 14s, 1 24 |
| Yadier Molina | (S) C-9 | 1-5-6-7-7-8-8-9-9-10-10, 3 14s, 1 24s |
At first glance, I’m thinking this is a pretty solid team. Good power and good speed. I’m impressed at Billy Butler is only player with more than one 24. That’s a constant source of stress on my league team.
To the task at hand, the first thing I do when I’m asked to make a lineup is to sort them by on-base chances. Mind you, it’s not the be-all, end-all solution but it’s a good way to start. To do that, I just add up all hit numbers from 1-7, 10s, 11s, 14s and 42s.
Note that those players with four 8s will take advantage of those C and D pitchers and conversely, A and B pitchers will not gain much advantage against those with just two 8s.
Here they are sorted by my on-base formula:
| Trout | 11 |
| Molina | 10 |
| Butler | 9 |
| Bruce | 8 |
| Granderson | 8 |
| Pedroia | 8 |
| Castro | 8 |
| Trumbo | 7 |
I can see now why Sgt. Dan is requesting help. While he has formidable starters on his roster, they don’t fit well into a lineup. While Trout could be forced into a leadoff role, I’d hate to waste that gap power and .326 average. The other two high OBP guys are slow (Molina is probably one the slowest baserunners in the MLB in my opinion).
While I certainly want high OBP hitters at the top of my lineup, I also want to factor in WHY they are high OBP. All other things equal, I’d rather put a batter who gets his offense from walks instead of a player who gets his offense from hits (and certainly power) in the leadoff spot. For now, Trout looks to be the #1 leadoff guy but let’s look further.
Dan’s Sharks lineup situation is complicated further because besides Trout, the two .300 hitters, Molina and Butler, are slow. I always hesitate to bat them too high in the lineup. If I can help it, I don’t bat them anywhere in the top four unless they are real producers. In Dan’s case, we might be making an exception, though.
Pedroia is an interesting case. To me, he is a borderline case for a #2 hitter. He hit .290, only has two 13s and doesn’t have any 24s on his card. If only he had just one extra 14, he’d be a perfect candidate. Castro is another possible candidate for the #2 spot but Dan better make sure that leadoff man get on with Starlin’s 3-5-5 power combo. I think I’m liking Pedroia better there since Castro has a couple more 13s and one more 24.
The biggest issue for Dan is the lack of a #3 hitter. Let me rephrase that. Mike Trout can’t leadoff AND bat third at the same time. Yes, I think Trout could make an excellent #3 hitter but if he does, we would be scrounging for a leadoff man. In a spot, Pedroia could fill that role. Eight on-base chances is about the limit for me unless I’m resting a whole lot of players.
Jay Bruce is the only player in the lineup with four solid power numbers. I’ve been overlooking him for the time being. Why? Other than his 1-5-5-6 and his 10, that all he has. He even has just two 8s as opposed to the regulation three 8-two 9 combination. The Sharks would be better off with someone who will put the bat on the ball in the 4th and 5th spot.
Among all the Sharks, Curtis Granderson led the MLB in real life with 43 homers. I’ll tell you right now that won’t get him an automatic bit for the cleanup spot. Grandy also hit .232 and has nine 13s on his card. Like Bruce, he’ll hit lower.
As much as it pains me, the two players I’m considering for the 4th and 5th spots are the two slow guys, Butler and Molina. Butler has a juicy 55-7 and Molina has a 44-7 with two 10s. They still have good on-base chances while decent power.
I’m proposing two lineups for Dan.
- Pedroia
- Castro
- Trout
- Butler
- Molina
- Granderson
- Bruce
- Trumbo
Now, the “Trout” lineup:
- Trout
- Castro
- Pedroia
- Butler
- Molina
- Granderson
- Bruce
- Trumbo
I admit I don’t like the idea of batting Pedroia third in the second lineup. I toyed with the idea of moving Castro to the eighth spot and moving everyone up. That depends on how comfortable Dan is with having slow guys up in the order.
Also, despite what I said about Granderson earlier, he wouldn’t be a bad guy to bat higher either (for two seconds, I even considered leading him off, 43 homeruns or no). He’s got four 14s. I do like batting him ahead of either Bruce or Trumbo to take advantage of their 5s.
I have to admit this was one of the toughest lineups I’ve had to put together. I’m curious what Dan is doing so far this year. If any of you have good suggestions, leave them in the comments. I’d love to hear what you guys would do.
It’s a tough choice with Trout, but I chose not to lead him off since you do have a player with a first column 11 in Pedroia.
Without knowing how many players have how many 13’s 3 31’s and such it is just a shot in the “glomin” for me so I may try for a few games
Pedroia
Granderson
Trout
Castro
Butler
Bruce
Trumbo
Molina
The bottom 4 could be subject to much changing based on performance over the season. If he is short on pitching maybe he could trade someone for pitching and get a speed guy for the top of the lineup at the same time.
At first glance, this lineup will be weak defensively at 3B! I’ll run it through my lineup tool and see what comes out.
Here’s what my ABPA lineup toy spits out:
vs B,C,D: Castro, Butler, Trout, Molina, Bruce, Granderson, Trumbo, Pedroia
vs A: Castro, Molina, Trout, Bruce, Granderson, Butler, Trumbo, Pedroia
Assuming Trumbo as DH, and some bad 3B man to bat 9th.
Thank You Stephen!!! So you are the owner of Steve’s Lineup Toy???? In a way this is all kind of your fault!!! LOL In the past when I have run into similar situations I have always used Steve’s Lineup Toy to give me some clarity…. I have been unable to locate an updated version so I started to reach out to some of my peeps to see if I could get some help!!! LOL
I have used approximately a half dozen lineups over the first 36 games in. I kind of feel like Scoiscoa did last year trotting out a different lineup every night…. Was starting to think I just needed to leave it one way for a while and relax a bit!!!
This is a NON DH League so Mark Trumbo is my Third Baseman…. But he is just keeping it warm this year for Longoria who is nursing some bad Hammies…. We expect Evan back strong next year and hopefully I will be able to move Trumbo back to First Base.
I will attempt to use these lineups in my next series against the Huntington Beach Misfits and see what happens!!! Thanks to all of you for the help!!!
The Lineup Toy has lapsed, unfortunately. I have to resurrect that beast, but I’d like to move away from Java (which is nothing but a pain for users) and get L/R split stats in there.
The APBA version uses the boards to calculate Avg/OBP/Slg vs pitcher grades and makes the lineup from those figures. Didn’t figure in the effects of Z and ZZ, though – caveat emptor!
Note, Starlin Castro has 2 14s, not 1, as given in the article.
Steve, you are correct. I noticed my mistake while writing the article and fixed it in the OBP chart but not the top chart.
Fixed now.
thanks!
Very fascinating article, and it’s really cool — because it’s about Dan’s team as well. I have enjoyed becoming friends and getting to know one of APBA’s die-hard fans, it’s good to see people embrace this wonderful game!
Shawn,
it was a fun one to write. I’m thinking of making it a semi-regular feature.
it could include league teams like Dan’s or replay teams (Scott F or Mel M, I’m looking at you :))
I was hearkening back to the old AJ articles that I used to read that taught us how to make a lineup. Love those gems!
The APBAx approach developed by Robert Ellis would produce the following order
1. Mike Trout (F)
2. Yadier Molina (S)
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Starlin Castro (F)
5. Jay Bruce
6. Billy Butler (S)
7. Curtis Granderson (F)
8. Mark Trumbo (S)
The APBAx approach is based on the Basic Game Boards.
On average this lineup could produce about 5 runs per game.
I am not wedded to the above but offer it as another approach.
I Like It!!! I will have to work this one in too…. I have them all written down and the source…. I will have to keep you posted on the results!!! Thanks!!!
Trout
Pedroia
Butler
Granderson
Bruce
Molina
Trumbo
Castro
I like Pedroia in that 2 spot because he has way less 13’s; so, you can hit and run with Trout (11 on 15) without fear of him getting caught stealing.
The old Sacrifice Booklet 13 or 14 was a SB if you had an 11 in the 1st column on a Hit and run, but on the new boards, you’re nailed on a 13, but safe on a 35.
The double 1’s for Granderson just seal the deal for me as the clean-up hitter, as much as some would disagree; I have found over the years that each of us has some “bread and butter” cards that just roll well.
As you already know Rich I used this lineup in my last series with some pretty good results…. Kind of. I did reverse Granderson and Bruce, putting the 1-5-5 behind Trout and Pedroia, but Grandy still hit 3 homeruns to Bruce’s 1.
Through my first five series’ I averaged 3.33, 4.16, 3.83, 4.83 and 6.33 runs per game. With your lineup I averaged 7.33 runs per game over the first three games including a season high 13-0 thrashing… but in the last three games, I only averaged 1 run a game and got shutout once myself. But still when the dust settled I averaged 4.33 runs a game. It seemed to work well.
Thanks again for taking the time to help me out!!!
Great discussion. I came up with:
Molina, Trout, Granderson, Butler, Bruce, Castro, Pedroia, Trumbo.
Yeah, I put a (S) in leadoff, but he gets on a lot. Granderson and Trout can swap.
I used Stephen’s old site to create lineups for my MG league based on his instructions. I hope he gets the chance to place it in a user friendly website so everyone can get the opportunity to use it. Stephen, you put out a great product! Many Thanks!
Tom, Have a nice birthday!!!
You have to get Trout up early; particularly since he has no “sometimes” home run numbers (3 ,4 and 5) in the first column and only 1 in the second. With a lot of offense up and down the lineup I do not consider the power wasted even if you bad him leadoff. After the fisrt at bat he should have a decent % of his at bats with runners on. This may be a good place to remember Gene Mauch’s explanation of his 1965 All-Star Game decision to lead off with Willie Mays. “If anyone is going to get up 5 times it is the lead off man. If anyone does get up 5 times I want it to be Willie Mays.” Alternatively you might want to bat him third because you do have some decent OBP and speed to put ahead of him. If this I a basic league I want all of the 11s up front. I sort of like Molina at 8. He has enough punch to clean up the bases before the pitcher and with his combination of good on base percentage and ice wagon speed this should give the pitcher a lot of sacrifice opportunities. The two 10s are illusionary; he is not a base runner so I am not troubled having him behind the other slowpokes. I also sort of like the idea of him on 2nd when Trout comes up.
Alternative 1
1. Trout
2. Pedroia
3. Granderson
4. Bruce
5. Trumbo
6. Butler
7. Castro
8. Molina
Alternative 2
1. Pedroia
2. Castro
3. Trout
4. Granderson
5. Bruce
6. Trumbo
7. Butler
8. Molina
Hmmmmm These are intriguing as well…. Even though Pedroia doesn’t have the hitting card that Butler and Molina do, I just seem to roll better for him. The only reason I don’t lead him off is because of the lack of speed. With Castro’s 3-5-5 behind him and then Trout to pick up the scraps could be interesting!!!
Tough putting Butler and Molina way back there… I was putting Trumbo and Granderson 8 & 9 and Granderson still leads the team with homeruns with 9 through 36 games. I did move him up to the 5th spot in this last series and he hit three more. So even with his .232 card, I may just have to put him up there anyway!!!
Man, I thought I was running a lot of lineups out before….. These next few series might be crazy with the amount of lineups I use!!! LOL Thanks Bob!!!
I am not sure I agree with you that Molina and Butler have substantially better cards than Pedroia. Each has 11 hit numbers and 3 walks. Pedroia has 5 numbers—0,0,0,0,11—that are always hits. Molina and Butler each have 3—1,5, 6. Unquestionably Molina and Butler have more power especially home runs. Butler has 3 #7, Molina 2 and Pedroia none. While the 7 is unquestionably better than an 8 or 10 it is not a sure hit number. In each case I match the 7s against the sure hit numbers and obviously the sure hit numbers are better. With Butler the issue is whether the extra 7, as compared to an 8, overcomes the two number differential in sure hits. I don’t think so. Each has a 1 so 1/36 times there will be a home run. The 5 is probably a home run about 1/72 of the time. The 6 essentially never is a home run. Molina and Butler will have a few more home runs but Pedroia should be on base more and clearly has a speed advantage. My experience with the basic game is that an S really slows you down. With an S runner on first or second you are generally compelled to go one base at a time, never advance from 2nd to 3rd on a fly ball and probably don’t try to score on a first out fly out. There are quirky exceptions. With a B pitcher a runner on 1st will make it to 3rd on a 7 and will be retired on an 8 or 9. So you let the S run. It doesn’t matter with an A pitcher but you really cannot take the chance with a C or D pitcher. Of course maybe all this means is that my style is closer to Whitey Herzog than to Earl Weaver.
Bob (and everyone),
thanks for the comment. I don’t think I would have batted Butler or Molina this high before APBA changed the boards and a Slow runner was a kiss of death. Now, there’s no reason to base coach a runner on first base (unless there’s a 39 on the card, of course… I still forget that, i admit).
I’ll have to do this again. It’s certainly generated some good discussion.
The thanks go to you for asking the question. I love this type of discussion.