IAL team batting after one month
Let’s talk about the exciting topic of stat normalization. Specifically about how it affects APBA leagues with a small number of teams.
Take the example of my Illowa APBA League. We’re a basic game, continuous ownership league with just 10 teams. Each year, we retire those players that don’t get cards and draft rookies to take their place. The pool we draft from are rookies that come from all 30 MLB teams.
As a result, we have become superstar, All-Star teams especially when it comes to pitching. Let me give you some facts to back this up.
After 30 games this season (2014 set), here are some of the averages of my players:
- Yan Gomes: .128 in 86 AB
- Eric Hosmer: .128 in 78 AB
- Jason Kipnis: .200 in 70 AB
- Nick Markakis: .142 in 113 AB
As a team, we’re batting .187.
These aren’t anomalies either. In last year’s season in which my whole team batted .215, Ryan Zimmerman batted .187 in 568 AB and Adam LaRoche hit .137 in 291 AB. I could go on. The point is with smaller leagues, there is stronger pitching and there is stronger hitting and the stats get skewed.
Don’t misread my point. This isn’t a winning or losing thing nor is it “I’m sore because this affects my team only”. I’m sure if you look at other teams they are similarly skewed. I would just like to find a solution to bring the stats back to reality.
There are obvious solutions to the problem but not necessarily ones that I or our league would want to embrace.
League expansion
Logically speaking, expanding a small league so that the available pool of talent would be distributed to a greater amount of teams is probably the best method. I’ve seen leagues’ with more than 16 teams and peeked at their rosters. The talent is more evenly distributed between hitting and pitching and there rosters are slightly more reminiscent of a MLB roster.
But league expansion is not simple and requires a lot of logistical work. Not every league is ready to expand and if they are, it takes some work and of course, managers ready to take the helm.
Reducing the draft pool
Another option which I’ve seen done is to limit the draft pool. For example, limiting the rookie draft pool to one particular league, like the NL only. Doing this will force managers to choose players based on needs rather than loading up on players with potential.
Disadvantages: This option probably wouldn’t go over too well with the IAL. Stats be damned, there are rookies that we just want access to.
Reducing the number of pitchers picked
One idea I heard bandied about was to artificially restrict the number of pitchers in the draft. Or perhaps, limit pitchers from being chosen after a certain round. While it’s true, a smaller league’s hitting is stronger and affects the total pitching, it seems that the opposite is more true. Stronger pitching has a devastating effect on hitting especially on those hitters without power or walks.
Summary
I’ve heard other ideas as well such as instituting the DH. While that will bring the total league stats back in line, I don’t think it will help Yan Gomes get his .128 batting average to a more realistic number.
For all of you in leagues with 8-12 teams (or smaller), what do you do to keep your teams from getting too strong and how do you keep your stats from getting too out of hand?
What’s the average starting pitching grade in your league?
How about the average real-life ERA average?
I just thought of this, so it might be nuts, but what if you re-graded the pitchers so the average grade is around a 9? (You can use the CMBA pitching grade formulas to normalize grades to your league average.)
Steve, the rotations are pretty loaded. I’m not in contention and currently 9th out of 10 teams and have five B starters and two C starters. I’ve got two A* plus a B* and a C* in the pen. I guarantee I’m not near the best. There are teams who don’t have to start a C.
The re-grading idea is interesting but I doubt the league would go for it. I have a sneaky suspicion that I think it’s a worse problem than everyone else does. :)
It all comes down to whether you think a reduction in singles is a problem. I think it changes the game significantly when the proportion of extra-base hits is skewed.
Since you seem to be Basic Game, your flexibility is limited, but I’d be with Jake (below) – take all pitchers down a grade.
An interesting thought. I had similar issues with my 1905 AL replay where pitching a standard 3 man rotation (which was the norm in that era)Saw the league batting average heavily suppressed.
Once teams became obviously out of contention I had those teams rotate every starting pitcher rated, forcing teams to use starters of every grade.
Once this happened stats began to normalize. I still only had 2 .300 hitters and 3 above .290.
Tom, of course, you and I have witnessed this much in the Boys of Summer APBA Baseball League with 16 teams, plus the fact that the MLB has been going through a pitchers’ era of sorts since 2010, with the ever-increasing strikeout totals as well — due to the free-swingers that plague the Majors. I believe once a league expands, the averages & realism would level out. I’m hoping for the BoS to have a minimum of at least 20 teams, with as many as 24 teams.
Even with BoS’ 16 teams, I see a small difference. I’m starting Cs a lot more and have players like Wellington Castillo in my starting lineup. Maybe I just have a crappy team too :)
Our league does nothing to fix this issue, and we have similar issues. We just dropped from 10 to 9 teams this year (F2F C&D BG league with minimal mods) and I believe there are at least 4 teams in the league with 2 or more A starters – at least one team has three. My rotation (which includes Clayton Kershaw) is probably the weakest of those who have the 2 As. But last year, even with 10 teams in the league, my leading hitter was Troy Tulowitzki – who batted a paltry .251 as compared to his real-life .300+. This year it’s even worse, and these stacked teams still end up behind the 8-ball (someone’s gotta lose when you play 160 games per season). I would love to see some corrections but we’ve not even broached the subject.
I know the feeling, Keith. Again, it’s not an issue of my team isn’t as good as the rest of the league’s but rather the stats are out of whack.
When Tulo is hitting .251 or in my case, Markakis is hitting .142, it’s hard to compare them to real life.
I enjoy looking at my league’s historical stats but when real life high average guys are hitting .250 or lower, it’s disconcerting.
Maybe my commish is reading this. :)
I’d lower the pitching grades. Down one letter across the board.
If that’s too much, roll one die before each inning. 1-3 means the pitcher stays at his current grade, while 4-6 means he drops one letter grade with the bases empty.
Another option I’ve seen is to convert all result number 35 (popout to catcher) to a 7 with the bases empty. This adds more singles in the game and helps reduce the problem of too many extra-base hits vs. singles.
How are league slugging percentages and do you have access to Babip? The option offered by Jake might work, but dropping pitchers a grade might help too.