Breaking down the record 2023 Pitching Grade Challenge by the numbers

Congrats again to Tom Doran who went 20 for 20 to win the 2023 Pitching Grade Challenge. Very impressive performance especially against another record number of participants! 

But what about the rest us?  How did we all do as a group?  Were there pitchers that were easy ‘gimmes’ and were there any that stumped us?

Let’s take a look

Overall, I saw a change from previous years’ Challenges.  In past years, voting for individual pitchers was all over the place.  In fact, it was not uncommon for a few pitchers to receive votes for all four grades.  That was not the case in 2023. There was not a single pitcher this year who received votes for all four grades.  For the most part, they hovered between two grades or in some cases, the correct grade. 

Maybe we ae all getting better at predicting cards!

By the numbers

This season tied last year for the highest number of participants in the APBA Blog Pitching Grade Challenge!  We had a total of 245 ballots and personally, I’m calling it a win. 

And overall, we did okay…

We almost hit the 70% correct guess rate and our average score was 13.8.  With Tom Doran and Thomas Battiato being the only ones who scored above 18, that probably brought that overall score figure down a bit. 

The score that highest number of voters received was 15.  Forty-six participants can boast that.  If you’re in that crowd, you’re in good company.  That was my score, too. More on that later. There was an even bell curve around that. 

No one scored less than six. 

Which pitchers were the easy targets?

Every year after the season is released, I look at the pitchers that most voters easily guessed.  I try to learn my lesson, so I won’t include similar pitchers in the next year’s Challenge. 

Enter 2023 Brady Singer and his 8-11 record and 5.52 ERA from Kansas City.  I’m not sure what I was thinking when I chose him for PGC6.  An overwhelming majority, 231 out of 245 (including me), correctly predicted he would be a grade D pitcher. 

Kyle Gibson (15-9, 4.73) was another gimme.  There were 213 out of the 245 that got his C grade right. 

Which pitchers stumped us?

This year, there were actually two pitchers in the Challenge that collectively, APBA fans who voted didn’t get right. 

LA’s Bobby Miller (11-4, 3.76) fooled more than half of those that voted.  There were only 120 who correctly predicted he would be a grade C.  Two thought he might be an A and 123 assumed he would be a B. 

Oh, but Drew Smyly!  The Cubs hurler fooled so many more.  Smyly who went 11-11 with a 5.00 ERA, somehow ended up a C pitcher. In the end, only 97 of 245 voted that direction. 

Smyly wins the Stumper of the Year Award this year. 

The Strider question

Now, I knew had to include Spencer Strider in this year’s Pitching Grade Challenge. In the back of my mind, I knew the card makers had no choice but to make him a grade B pitcher (which they did). Yet, because of Strider’s superstar status as a twenty game winner plus his astronomical strikeout rate (281 K in 186 2/3 IP), he was included.

Strider received a BKY grade as a starter. Not surprisingly, more than a few voters thought APBA might bump him up to a A but his 3.86 ERA was too hefty for that. As a general rule, pitchers with 20 wins automatically receive at least a grade B so I was confident that was the grade he would get.

How did Tom fare?

As I do every year, I take the Pitching Grade Challenge in an unofficial capacity.  How did I do?

I don’t suppose I did too bad.  I guessed 15 out of 20 which is acceptable to me.  There were still some old guard in the league I’m in who scored better than I did (they know who they are). 

Who did I miss?  Here are the five pitchers I guessed incorrectly. 

There doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to my misses as I guessed high on some and low on others. 

I did get Smyly right though. 

Summary

Congratulations again to Tom Doran!  Tom has agreed to do a Fan Profile interview so expect to see that sometime in the next month or so. 

Thanks also to John Herson and APBA Games for sponsoring the grand prize.  John has supported the Pitching Grade Challenge since its inception, and it has grown since.  Thanks!

With that, here are the twenty pitchers and the voting distribution associated with them.